Page 11 - The Peorian Vol 3 Issue 1 Winter

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thePeorian.com The Present
Federation. “At this point there
is no plan to revise our forecast,”
she said during an interview
just before Thanksgiving. “But
there is always the possibility
our economists will adjust the
forecast after seeing the new
numbers. That probably will
depend on how big of a change
it would be.”
The new numbers to which
she referred include Novem-
ber’s national retail sales results,
home sales and unemployment
claims, among other items.
Those numbers, Grannis said,
could go a long way in showing
where the consumer confidence
lies in the wake of the federal
shutdown being resolved.
The forecast issued in mid-
October tried to take the federal
fiscal crisis into consideration
as much as possible, she added.
“There is no question consumers
are affected by those crises when
they happen so that must be
considered,” she said. “It’s also
something we look at going for-
ward. The crisis was averted this
time, but it still could come up
again in January. We know con-
sumers are going to be watch-
ing and listening closely before
making the ultimate spending
decisions.”
Breaking down the NRF fore-
cast, which it called conservative
based on its own survey of shop-
pers, the Federation predicts the
average holiday shopper will
spend $737.95 on gifts, décor,
greeting cards and other items.
Most of that will be spent on
family members.
Overall the NRF forecast No-
vember and December holiday
sales will increase 3.9 percent to
$602 billion this year over 2012.
That would be above the 3.5 per-
cent actual gain realized in 2012
over the previous year as well as
the 10-year average increase of
3.3 percent.
Grannis said the forecast takes
the rate of inflation into consid-
eration, along with other factors.
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