Pulse On The Polls: More than 4 in 5 Americans Planning to Vote Next Week

With the U.S. presidential election just around the corner, the political rhetoric is at fever pitch levels on both sides of the aisle.

But what do consumers think about their involvement in the U.S. political system? To find out, Harris Poll partnered with Nielsen to survey consumers regarding the voting process itself—from their likelihood of voting to the trust they have in both the current machines and potential emerging technology as well—and found that region, political philosophy, and race/ethnicity all come into play.

These are some of the results of The Harris Poll® of 2,463 U.S. adults aged 18+, along with representative oversamples of 485 Hispanic Americans (interviewed in English and Spanish) and 180 Asian Americans (interviewed in English), and including 2,164 "likely voters" (U.S. adults who say they will probably or definitely vote, regardless of their voter registration status at the time of the survey), surveyed online between July 14 and 27, 2016. Complete results of this study can be found here.

Stepping out: the voter intent of this year's ballot casters
The study found that 86 percent of all Americans say they will definitely or probably vote in this year's election ("likely voters"), including 94 percent of those who are already registered to vote and 24 percent of those who were not registered to vote at the time of the survey.

Among likely voters (those who say they will probably or definitely vote, regardless of their voter registration status at the time of the survey), 87 percent of men and 84 percent of women said they will definitely or probably vote in this year's election, though men are more likely than women to say they will definitely vote (79 percent vs. 71 percent, respectively). Perhaps not surprisingly, adults ages 65 and older are more likely to say they will vote than younger adults.

But how do voters' views and political leanings sway their intent to hit the polls?

The study found that 90 percent of Americans who described their political leanings as "liberal" said they will probably or definitely vote, while 87 percent of "conservative" leaning adults and 83 percent of "moderate" adults said they plan to vote.

Among the different race/ethnic groups, 77 percent of white adults said they definitely plan on voting in next month's election—compared with 73 percent of black adults, 69 percent of Hispanic adults, and 63 percent of Asian adults.

Additionally, nearly half (46 percent) of all Americans said they would be more likely to vote if it was easier to get to their voting center and about the same proportion (45 percent) said they wish they could vote closer to home.

Cast away: the ways consumers prefer to vote
The survey didn't just look at whether Americans were planning to punch their respective tickets. It also looked at how they would prefer to have their voice heard, looking at attitudes toward traditional ways to vote as well as how technological advances in regard to voting might play in the future.

In fact, 57 percent of likely voters agreed that they would feel comfortable voting online, and 60 percent said they would be more likely to vote if they could do so from home.

When asked about their "preferred" method of voting, 42 percent of likely voters noted they lean toward in-person electronic voting, 24 percent said they prefer in-person paper ballots, 16 percent said they would like remote online voting from either work or home, and 17 percent said they would rather mail-in a paper ballot.

The survey looked deeper at the potential online voting might have with voters, taking a close look at political leanings, age, race, and the distance from the voting centers.

For instance, comfort with voting online follows a definite demographic trend, with 66 percent of likely voters aged 18-34 agreeing that they would be comfortable voting online. However, this percentage ebbs away as age increases—only 40 percent of likely voters 65 and older said they feel comfortable voting online.

With rapid technological advancements, knowing how voters feel about not only who they vote for, but how they feel comfortable voting, is crucial toward making every voter—and vote—count.

Harris Poll: Gap in religious beliefs narrows between teens and adults

Though Americans are currently attempting to recover from their Halloween sugar comas, with our presidential election looming, religious beliefs are rising to the tops of many conversations and minds.

Over the past few years, The Harris Poll has found that the gap between the proportion of U.S. adults (18+) and teens (13-17) that believe in God is closing. In 2014, 8 in 10 teens (80%) believed in God while only 74% of adults felt the same in 2013, now in 2016, just over three quarters of each share this belief (77% teens, 76% adults).

It is worth noting, however, that while over half of all Americans aged 13 and older say they are absolutely certain there is a God, teens are more likely than adults to feel this way (58% teens vs. 53% adults).

These are some of the results of The Harris Poll® of 2,463 U.S. adults aged 18+ and 510 teens aged 13-17 surveyed online between July 14 and 27, 2016.

The after party

Whether or not a person believes in God, everyone must still find their own way to contend with the matter of death. Just under three quarters of Americans (74% teens, 73% adults) believe in Heaven, followed by seven in ten who believe in angels (71%, 70% respectively).

When it comes to the devil's domain, 65% of teens believe in Hell, a six-percentage point jump on the 59% of adults who feel the same. In addition, just under six in ten Americans believe in the Devil (59% teens, 58% adults).

And when it comes to what's deep inside, over six in ten Americans (61% teens, 64% adults) believe the soul survives after death, while 19% of teens and about a quarter of adults (26%) believe in reincarnation.

WHAT AMERICANS BELIEVE IN
Please indicate for each one if you believe in it, or not.

Base: Teens 13-17 and Adults 18+

To see other recent Harris Polls, please visit our website, TheHarrisPoll.com.

Methodology

This Harris Poll was conducted online, in English, within the United States between July 14 and 27, 2016among 2,463 adults aged 18+ and 510 teens aged 13-17. Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population.  Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online.

Hear Harry Caray call the final out of the World Series

He loved the Chicago Cubs. He loved Budweiser. To the point he proclaimed himself "Cubs Fan Bud Man".  And he dreamed one day the Chicago Cubs would win the World Series. The city of Chicago has had that dream since 1908!

Last night that dream came true with a dramatic Game 7 victory. The only thing missing from last night's win was Harry Caray calling the final out...until now.

Budweiser, the official beer of Major League Baseball, has created a custom TV spot that allows fans to hear the late, great Harry Caray call the final out of the 2016 World Series by utilizing Caray's iconic voice over clips depicting the emotion of today's fans.

To make this a reality, Budweiser custom-created a spot featuring audio from Caray's days as a Cubs broadcaster overlaid with real-time fan reactions to the game and Chicago Cubs fans celebrating the historic victory. In partnership with the Harry Caray estate, this custom spot was released following Game Seven of the 2016 World Series, giving baseball fans everywhere a chance to hear the final out the way it was meant to be called.

"While Bud and baseball pair well together, nothing and no one is more synonymous with the Chicago Cubs than Harry Caray," said Ricardo Marques, vice president, Budweiser. "To help Cubs fans celebrate this historic win, we wanted to bring back the real 'Cubs Fan Bud Man' to deliver the winning announcement he longed to give. We are honored to be part of this special moment."

Additionally, Budweiser reprised and aired its iconic 1984 "Cubs Fan Bud Man" ad last night immediately following the last out of the Fall Classic, showcasing Caray enjoying a baseball game with his fellow bleacher bums with his favorite beverage at his favorite stadium – Wrigley Field.

The brand's partnership with Caray dates back to the 1980's when he first held the role of "Cubs Fan Bud Man", resulting in a series of Budweiser commercial cameos. The relationship continues to be a strong one, with the brand working closely with the Harry Caray estate to continue to honor Caray and his commitment to baseball.

Budweiser will also be in on the ground in Chicago, with various activations, including:

• Clydesdale appearances at local Chicago favorites and the upcoming World Series Championship Parade for the Cubs
• Special Cubs celebratory cans for the entire Cubs organization
• Local social and digital activations highlighting the road to the World Series for Cubs fans over the last 108 years

Anheuser-Busch and MLB have a longstanding relationship with Budweiser serving as the "Official Beer Sponsor of Major League Baseball" for more than thirty years.

For more information, check out Budweiser on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook and YouTube.

Top students more likely to drop out if financial aid reduced

High-performing students are more likely to drop out of school if they lose relatively small amounts of financial aid, according to an analysis released today by EAB.  Specifically, students with a grade point average (GPA) above 3.0 who lose $1,000 to $1,500 in financial aid are 2.5 percentage points more likely to drop out of school than their peers who have little or no change in aid.

"Most students assume the financial aid they get for their first year will stay the same for future years, especially if they do well academically and family circumstances do not change materially.  And while that is the prevailing practice, it is not always true," said Jim Day, vice president at Hardwick Day, a division of EAB.  "When aid gets reduced, some students simply are unable to pay the increased tuition required to stay in school.  Another possible explanation for students' increased risk of dropping out is that reductions in aid could lead students to question the value of their college experience, and how much their school values them."

All students—regardless of GPA—who lose financial aid are more likely to drop out of school than their peers who have little or no change in aid.  And the more financial aid students lose, the more likely they are to drop out.

• On average, students who lose $1,500 to $2,000 in financial aid are three percentage points more likely to drop out than their peers;
• Students who lose $4,000 in aid are 4.5 percentage points more likely to drop out than their peers;
• And students who lose over $10,000 in aid are 19 percentage points more likely to drop out than their peers.

"Our research shows that monitoring changes in financial aid is another tool schools can use to determine where they should focus limited resources to improve student success," said Ed Venit, senior director at EAB.  "For example, students with a GPA between 2.0 and 3.0—what EAB refers to as the Murky Middle—account for 45 percent of total drop outs, but without data and analytics it is difficult to tell which students in this group are more likely to leave school."

Murky Middle students who lose $2,000 to $4,000 are more than four percentage points less likely to persist than other students.  If they lose $4,000 to $6,000 in aid, the gap increases to more than nine percentage points less likely to persist.

On the flip side, increases in financial aid correlate with an increase in student persistence.  Murky Middle and high-performing students whose aid increases $1,500 to $2,000 are almost three percentage points more likely to persist than their peers who have little or no change in aid.

Seattle University (SU) is piloting the use of small ($1,000 to $3,000) grants to provide additional support to high-performing, high-need students.  These supplementary grants both reduce a student's bill and increase a student's morale by demonstrating the institution's commitment to their success.  SU's retention of grant recipients exceeds rates for high-need students by five percentage points.

"We want to be as effective in supporting student success as we can, as early as we can, and use resources as efficiently as we can," said Josh Krawczyk, director of university retention initiatives at Seattle University.  "We have found that strategically giving grant aid to continuing students has a significant impact on retention."

EAB's analysis included more than 40,000 sophomores and above at three universities who refiled the FAFSA and maintained eligibility for federal financial aid by registering for 12 or more credits.  The study excludes international students, non-dependents, part-time students, transfer students, and athletes.  EAB will investigate the correlation between financial aid and student success further in future analyses.

The data were presented at EAB's Annual Technology Summit, CONNECTED, a two-day gathering of more than 400 of the country's most progressive leaders to explore innovative solutions and build on best practices that can help more students succeed.