The Oscars: Who will win?

Any movie reviewer worth his salt will lay it out there, so to speak, and give his readers his predictions of the winners in the major categories of the Academy Awards. 

I have to admit it is risky doing so. I am trying to balance who I feel is the most deserving while attempting to predict how more than 6,000 Academy members will vote. These 6,000 souls who make movie magic every day are a rather unique group who often march to the beat of a different drum. Every year there are snubs and surprises that no one could have predicted, and no doubt the same will happen this year.

So, what am I going to do?  I am not only going to predict who will win, but I am going to tell you who (in my humble opinion) deserves to win, and even more, who was not even considered but should have been.

Alas, with no further ado, I give you the 85th Academy Awards! (This Sunday at 6 p.m. on ABC.)

Best Picture

...And the nominees are: "Amour," "Argo," "Beasts of the Southern Wild," "Django Unchained," "Les Miserables," "Life of Pi," "Lincoln," "Silver Linings Playbook" and "Zero Dark Thirty."

I am not a big fan of the expanded Best Picture category for a couple of reasons. First and foremost, there are a few films that should not even be in discussion here (although this is a tighter year than the last few have been). "Beasts of the Southern Wild," "Silver Linings Playbook" and "Django Unchained," while good to decent films, are really not worthy of being part of the "best" discussion.

Secondly, the academy seems intent on bringing foreign films into the mix. I have no problem with that short of not being able to, you know, actually see them. "Amour" was released in the U.S. in December and has yet to find its way to Peoria. And I'm sorry, Paul does not pay me enough (read: nothing) to drive to Chicago and hunt it down.

"Zero Dark Thirty" was far and away the best picture of the year by any sort of measure.  Unfortunately, it will not win because of all the bad publicity and negative campaign that came out of the misguided torture depicted in the film. It was also a fairly cerebral film and it seemingly lost support because some people just did not get it.

Of the remaining films "Lincoln" is the best, but there seems to be a building momentum for "Argo" in the past few weeks. Hollywood apparently has developed a guilt complex for not nominating director Ben Affleck and more than anything else, guilt will get you votes.

The true tragedy this year is that the final "Dark Knight" film did not get so much as a passing glance by the Academy. That is indeed sad because the trilogy was truly groundbreaking filmmaking and you really begin to wonder who did Christopher Nolan make angry?

What Should Win:  "Zero Dark Thirty"

What Will Win: "Argo"

Should Have Been at the Dance:  "The Dark Knight Rises"

Best Actor

...And the nominees are:  Bradley Cooper "Silver Linings Playbook", Daniel Day-Lewis "Lincoln", Hugh Jackman "Les Miserables", Joaquin Phoenix "The Master", and Denzel Washington "Flight".

This category is always a very tough call and this year is no exception. Bradley Cooper impressed me the most as he played an incredibly complex character exceptionally well and I think he and Jennifer Lawrence carried a marginal script and subsequently turned the movie into something very good.

Denzel was Denzel, Joaquin returned from retirement in good form, and Hugh Jackman showed off his Broadway chops on-screen and the world got to see that his talent is much more than a wolverine. 

As good as everyone was, Daniel Day-Lewis was better. His depiction and portrayal of Abraham Lincoln should be mandated study for all acting students.

Who Should Win:  Daniel Day-Lewis

Who Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis

Should Have Been at the Dance:  Logan Lerman, "Perks of Being a Wallflower"

Best Actress

...And the nominees are:  Jessica Chastain "Zero Dark Thirty", Jennifer Lawrence "Silver Linings Playbook", Emmanuelle Riva "Amour", Quvenzhane Wallis "Beasts of the Southern Wild", Naomi Watts "The Impossible".

To me, this is a two-horse race between Chastain and Lawrence. Wallis was cute and broke the record for youngest nominee for Best Actress, but really, was there any acting?  She was a 9 year-old playing – surprise -- a 9 year-old. Having three of these models (past and present), I can assure you they are not real deep.

Riva is making noise as the dark horse and since she is turning 86 years-old next week, the sentimentality could garner her the award. Naomi Watts was brilliant, but the weakness of her script will keep her from winning.

Between Chastain and Lawrence, I liked Chastain better. She played a multi-layered character with tremendous strength yet showed a remarkable versatility with wonderfully chosen moments of vulnerability. As much as Lawrence picked up "Silver Linings Playbook" and carried it home, I think she did not give quite the performance that Chastain did.

Who Should Win:  Jessica Chastain

Who Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence

Should Have Been at the Dance: Helen Mirren, "Hitchcock"

Best Director

...And the nominees are:  Michael Haneke "Amour", Behn Zeitlin "Beasts of the Southern Wild", Ang Lee "Life of Pi", Steven Spielberg "Lincoln", David O. Russell "Silver Linings Playbook"

This is the most up-in-the-air category of the year simply because two directors who should be here are not -- Ben Affleck of "Argo" and Kathryn Bigelow of "Zero Dark Thirty". Moreover, the Best Director and Best Picture Award typically go hand-in-hand and that simply is not happening this year.

Of the five proffered up the two best directed movies are "Lincoln" and "Life of Pi". Spielberg will not get much traction given that, while an exceptional film, "Lincoln" was nothing beyond what Spielberg usually does. While I enjoyed "Silver Linings Playbook" the direction was nothing extraordinary. That said, there is a groundswell of support in Hollywood for Russell that smacks more of a popularity contest, and it is one that appears unstoppable.

The tragedy is that Bigelow was not even nominated. "Zero Dark Thirty" is a markedly better movie than "The Hurt Locker" and Bigelow has a remarkable eye and understands how to build tension better than most directors working today. The depth of her films are simply extraordinary.

Who Should Win:  Kathryn Bigelow

Who Will Win: David O. Russell

Should Have Been at the Dance: Kathryn Bigelow

Best Supporting Actor

...And the nominees are:  Alan Arkin "Argo", Robert De Niro "Silver Linings Playbook", Philip Seymour Hoffman "The Master", Tommy Lee Jones "Lincoln", and Christoph Waltz "Django Unchained".

The "supporting" categories are my absolute favorite simply because this is where the real actors live. You don't have to be pretty, thin, and splashed on the front page of the tabloids in order to rock this nomination.

And wow, what a tough category this one is! This year is like trying to pick between chocolate and vanilla.

No one actor stood above the other and to an actor, each stole their respective screen time.  Hoffman is one of my favorites and De Niro, Jones, and Christoph Waltz were as good as they always are. The one who shocked me was Arkin, who stole the movie from fellow supporting actor John Goodman (who was in the middle of stealing the movie himself).

Who Should Win: Alan Arkin

Who Will Win: Alan Arkin

Should Have Been at the Dance: Bryan Cranston "Argo" and Samuel L. Jackson "Django Unchained"

Best Supporting Actress

...And the nominees are: Amy Adams "The Master", Sally Field "Lincoln", Anne Hathaway, "Les Miserables", Helen Hunt "The Sessions", and Jacki Weaver "Silver Linings Playbook"

Again there are two standouts here and as good as Adams, Hunt, and Weaver were, this race is between Sally Field and Anne Hathaway.

Field was mind-blowing, scary good in her role as Mary Todd Lincoln. The depth of character and the strength that she gave Mrs. Lincoln after history had wrongly castigated her was, according to research, spot-on.  When I saw the movie, I thought Sally Field had this award sewn-up.

Then I saw "Les Miserables" and Anne Hathaway. Aside from her stunning beauty, she is as good an actress as any working today. Her large and expressive eyes are a gift from God, and for the 20 minutes of screen time she was so remarkable she made the audience forget to breathe. 

She was that good.

Who Should Win:  Anne Hathaway "Les Miserables"

Who Will Win: Anne Hathaway "Les Miserables"

Should Have Been at the Dance:  Samantha Barks, "Les Miserables"

About the Author

Who was that mysterious man you saw in the theater last night? You tried to get a look at him but he quickly disappeared in a puff of smoke, his cackle trailing in the air, leaving behind his calling card: a half-eaten box of popcorn and a lukewarm soda. He is Our Movie Reviewer named Tim!